Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Rece HindsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Baldwin singled to left, Albies scored, White to second.4–5
- 9Harris II singled to left, Rosario scored, Harris II to second, Harris II safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Lux.4–4
- 9White hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Albies scored, Rosario to second.4–3
- 9Hinds homered to left center (407 feet), Hurtubise scored.4–2
- 7Friedl singled to right, Dunn scored, Hinds to second, Trevino to third.2–2
- 5Harris II tripled to right, White scored.1–2
- 5Trevino doubled to left, Steer scored, Espinal to third.1–1
- 1Olson hit sacrifice fly to left, Riley scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 66%
- ML CIN +180 / ATL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.6%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -191
- CIN +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.5 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −7 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +46 Elo | ATL 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.019th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 8th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 11–612th of 30 |
| 26th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15085th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Elo rating | 15259th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–17 | 17–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 16–22 | 16–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 6–9 ATL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.