Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Albies hit sacrifice fly to center, Ozuna scored.4–3
- 6Olson singled to center, Riley scored, Ozuna to third.4–2
- 5Baldwin homered to right center (399 feet).4–1
- 4Stephenson singled to left, Lux scored.4–0
- 3Friedl homered to center (407 feet).3–0
- 1Lux grounded into double play, McLain scored, De La Cruz out at third.2–0
- 1Friedl homered to right center (399 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 51%
- ML CIN -105 / ATL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.7 – 3.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −1 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +32 Elo | ATL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.018th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.8 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 8th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 11–58th of 30 |
| 26th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15086th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15269th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–17 | 17–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 16–21 | 16–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–9 ATL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.