Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting1-1, 3 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Pirates- Joey BartBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Carmen MlodzinskiPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bart reached on infield single to shortstop, Frazier scored, McCutchen to second, Hayes to third.3–4
- 8Murphy doubled to center, Fairchild scored, Riley scored and Olson scored.3–3
- 5Bart singled to right, Reynolds scored.0–3
- 5McCutchen hit sacrifice fly to left, Hayes scored, Reynolds to second.0–2
- 5Triolo scored, Hayes to third on passed ball by Baldwin.0–1
- 5Triolo scored, Hayes to third on passed ball by Baldwin.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 67%
- ML ATL -230 / PIT +190
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 59.8%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -202
- PIT +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.5 – 3.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −4 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +69 Elo | ATL 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 65.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.426th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 22nd of 307–14 | Road vs home | 8–1329th of 30 |
| 5th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 9th of 301526 | Elo rating | 145626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–22 | 14–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–16 | 3–12 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders | 17–22 | 17–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 8–7 PIT in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.