Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Orioles- Ramon LaureanoBatting4-4, 1 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Nuñez reached on infield single to first, Tena scored on error, Nuñez safe at third on throwing error by pitcher Bautista.4–3
- 8Wood homered to center (421 feet).3–3
- 6Urías hit sacrifice fly to right, Mountcastle scored, Laureano to third.2–3
- 6Wood singled to center, Nuñez scored.2–2
- 3Holliday reached on infield single to second, Laureano scored, Urías to second, O'Hearn to third.1–2
- 3Laureano doubled to left, Rutschman scored.1–1
- 2Lowe homered to right center (404 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML WSH +100 / BAL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 55.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.2 – 4.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −9 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +41 Elo | BAL 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.725th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.527th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −1.829th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 23rd of 308–15 | Road vs home | 8–1227th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 26th of 301455 | Elo rating | 148623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–23 | 15–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 0–8 | 7–16 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders | 21–24 | 21–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–7 BAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.