Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wood doubled to right, Nuñez scored.5–4
- 8Rosario singled to center, Abrams scored.4–4
- 7Tena doubled to left, Crews scored.3–4
- 7Crews singled to left, Lowe scored.2–4
- 5Ozuna doubled to left, Allen scored and Fairchild scored.1–4
- 3Fairchild scored on throwing error by catcher Adams.1–2
- 3Fairchild scored on throwing error by catcher Adams.1–2
- 3Fairchild doubled to center, Harris II scored.1–1
- 1Lowe grounded into fielder's choice to third, Rosario scored, Wood out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML WSH +150 / ATL -180
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 62.5%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -161
- WSH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.2 – 5.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −6 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +89 Elo | ATL 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 24th of 307–14 | Road vs home | 14–67th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 30 |
| 26th of 301455 | Elo rating | 15268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–22 | 18–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–8 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 21–14 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–22 | 17–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 13–15 ATL in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 28.