Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Angels- Matthew LugoBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lugo homered to left (421 feet).7–3
- 6Henderson homered to center (386 feet), Mullins scored.7–2
- 6Handley hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Rivera scored, Mullins to second.5–2
- 6Laureano scored on Brogdon wild pitch.4–2
- 6Laureano scored on Brogdon wild pitch.4–2
- 5Mountcastle singled to right, Mullins scored, O'Neill to second.3–2
- 5Handley hit sacrifice fly to left, Rivera scored.2–2
- 1O'Hoppe singled to center, Ward scored.1–2
- 1Ward doubled to right, Soler scored, Ward to third.1–1
- 1Rutschman tripled to left, Henderson scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML BAL -150 / LAA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- BAL -135
- LAA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.1 – 4.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +25 | +7 | BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 1.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +54 Elo | BAL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.724th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 5.325th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −1.627th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 27th of 306–15 | Road vs home | 9–920th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149619th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301490 | Elo rating | 143628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–24 | 14–24 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–13 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 8–11 | 12–15 |
| Overs–unders | 18–20 | 21–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 10–5 LAA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.