Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 7Correa singled to center, France scored.1–9
- 7Buxton homered to left (371 feet), Bride scored and Castro scored.1–8
- 4Mountcastle doubled to left, Henderson scored.1–5
- 3Correa homered to left center (458 feet), Jeffers scored.0–5
- 3Jeffers singled to right, Castro scored and Buxton scored.0–3
- 3Buxton doubled to left, Larnach scored, Castro to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 60%
- ML BAL +140 / MIN -165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 52.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -149
- BAL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +4 | BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +18 Elo | MIN 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.823rd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.7 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 24th of 305–11 | Road vs home | 9–615th of 30 |
| 9th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149024th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Elo rating | 149221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–20 | 19–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 10–8 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–16 | 13–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 10–2 MIN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.