Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Red Sox- Alex BregmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duran singled to right, Hamilton scored.1–6
- 8Hamilton doubled to center, González scored.1–5
- 8González doubled to right, Story scored.1–4
- 7Devers reached on infield single to second, Wong scored and Hamilton scored.1–3
- 3Jeffers homered to left (406 feet).1–1
- 1Bregman homered to center (410 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML MIN -105 / BOS -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 4.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +10 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +31 Elo | BOS 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 27th of 304–13 | Road vs home | 8–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 147830th of 30 |
| 21st of 301492 | Elo rating | 150018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–15 | 17–16 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–8 | 9–12 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–20 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–7 BOS in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.