Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kris BubicPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting3-4
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pasquantino homered to right center (422 feet).4–0
- 8Isbel homered to right center (384 feet).3–0
- 5Biggio homered to right center (389 feet).2–0
- 4Garcia singled to center, India scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 50%
- ML KC -110 / BAL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 56.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- BAL -100
- KC -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 4.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +19 | KC: Kris Bubic: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.96 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +46 Elo | BAL 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.020th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.528th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.527th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 18th of 306–11 | Road vs home | 8–721st of 30 |
| 11th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15049th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Elo rating | 150315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–18 | 13–18 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 9–9 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 12–21 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 7–11 BAL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.