New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Ryan O'HearnBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wells doubled to center, Volpe scored.3–4
- 8Volpe doubled to right, Goldschmidt scored.2–4
- 7Judge grounded into fielder's choice to third, Cabrera scored, Grisham out at second.1–4
- 3O'Hearn homered to right (357 feet), Henderson scored and Rutschman scored.0–4
- 2Laureano doubled to center, Holliday scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML NYY -130 / BAL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 49.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- BAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.9 – 4.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +18 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +5 Elo | BAL 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.020th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 5–627th of 30 |
| 9th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301541 | Elo rating | 150216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–13 | 11–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–10 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 14–14 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 11–15 BAL in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 26.