Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan O'HearnBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Urías homered to left (369 feet).3–4
- 7Torkelson homered to right center (387 feet).2–4
- 7Westburg reached on infield single to third, Mullins scored, Henderson to second.2–3
- 5Jung singled to center, McKinstry scored.1–3
- 4O'Hearn homered to left center (375 feet).1–2
- 2Torres hit sacrifice fly to center, Sweeney scored.0–2
- 2Báez doubled to center, Dingler scored, Sweeney to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML BAL +120 / DET -145
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- DET: Elo 55.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -130
- BAL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.0 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +3 | BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +36 Elo | DET 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.33rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +1.24th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 10–34th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15089th of 30 |
| 15th of 301508 | Elo rating | 152310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–14 | 16–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 8–4 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 15–9 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 8–5 DET in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.