Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7McKinstry doubled to left, Torkelson scored, Ibáñez to third.2–6
- 7Torkelson doubled to left, Sweeney scored and Torres scored.2–5
- 6Laureano hit sacrifice fly to left, Rutschman scored.2–3
- 3Greene homered to right (398 feet), Jung scored and Torres scored.1–3
- 3Henderson doubled to left, Holliday scored, Mullins thrown out at home.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 53%
- ML BAL -125 / DET +105
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 40.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −29 | — | BAL: Charlie Morton: team allows 1.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | DET +65 Elo | DET 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.33rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +1.24th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 19th of 305–9 | Road vs home | 11–34th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15087th of 30 |
| 15th of 301507 | Elo rating | 152410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–14 | 16–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 8–5 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 15–10 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 8–6 DET in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.