Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jorge MateoBatting2-3
- Dean KremerPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Gleyber TorresBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 7Torres doubled to left, Malloy scored and Báez scored.0–7
- 6Dingler singled to right, Jung scored, Sweeney thrown out at home.0–5
- 6Jung singled to center, McKinstry scored.0–4
- 5Torres singled to left, Báez scored, Torres out stretching at second.0–3
- 2Báez doubled to left, Sweeney scored and Torkelson scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- DET 69%
- ML BAL +205 / DET -250
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- DET: Elo 58.2%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- DET -218
- BAL +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 2.9 – 4.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +14 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +57 Elo | DET 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.23rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 21st of 305–10 | Road vs home | 12–32nd of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15097th of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 15266th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–15 | 17–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 8–5 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 15–11 | 12–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 8–7 DET in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.