Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane BazPitching5.2 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Garcia singled to center, India scored, Pasquantino to second.8–2
- 6Aranda singled to left, Simpson scored.7–2
- 6Pasquantino singled to left, Fermin scored and India scored, Witt Jr. to second.7–1
- 6Witt Jr. hit by pitch, Canha scored, India to second, Fermin to third.5–1
- 5Perez doubled to center, Pasquantino scored.4–1
- 5Witt Jr. homered to right (330 feet), Fermin scored.3–1
- 4Massey hit sacrifice fly to center, Garcia scored.1–1
- 1Díaz homered to center (394 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 59%
- ML KC +135 / TB -160
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- TB: Elo 53.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -145
- KC +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +13 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +25 Elo | TB 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.019th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.77th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 19th of 305–10 | Road vs home | 9–1227th of 30 |
| 11th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149619th of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Elo rating | 150216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–17 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 6–12 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–20 | 11–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 8–7 TB in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.