Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Royals- Jonathan IndiaBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Kris BubicPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Waters tripled to right, Garcia scored.7–3
- 7India hit sacrifice fly to left, Biggio scored.7–2
- 7Diaz homered to right (384 feet).7–1
- 6Peña doubled to left, McCormick scored and Dezenzo scored.6–1
- 5Witt Jr. doubled to left, India scored.4–1
- 5Peña singled to left, McCormick scored on error, Peña safe at second on throwing error by left fielder India.4–0
- 3Alvarez homered to center (436 feet), McCormick scored and Paredes scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 58%
- ML HOU -155 / KC +130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -140
- KC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.1 – 3.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −1 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Kris Bubic: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +18 Elo | HOU 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.129th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 11–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150411th of 30 |
| 10th of 301524 | Elo rating | 149819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–13 | 12–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 8–18 | 10–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–10 KC in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 15.