Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting2-4
- Framber ValdezPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Pasquantino homered to right (412 feet).0–2
- 1Canha hit sacrifice fly to right, India scored, Witt Jr. to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 58%
- ML HOU -155 / KC +130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 53.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -140
- KC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.6 – 3.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −4 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +26 Elo | HOU 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.229th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 10–48th of 30 |
| 11th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 8th of 301526 | Elo rating | 149618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–12 | 11–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 8–17 | 10–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–9 KC in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 14.