Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting2-4
- Hayden WesneskiPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting3-4
- Seth LugoPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Renfroe hit sacrifice fly to center, Pasquantino scored, Garcia to third.0–2
- 5Isbel hit sacrifice fly to right, Waters scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML HOU -120 / KC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 50.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.8 – 3.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +3 | HOU: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +7 Elo | HOU 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.227th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 12th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 9–410th of 30 |
| 11th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150314th of 30 |
| 8th of 301528 | Elo rating | 149518th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–11 | 10–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders | 8–16 | 10–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–8 KC in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.