Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Freddy FerminBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fermin singled to right, Garcia scored.3–1
- 4Caminero homered to center (410 feet).2–1
- 2Isbel hit sacrifice fly to left, Waters scored.2–0
- 1Perez doubled to center, India scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 59%
- ML KC +135 / TB -160
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- TB: Elo 52.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -145
- KC +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −10 | KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +20 Elo | TB 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.79th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–10 | Road vs home | 9–1025th of 30 |
| 11th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Elo rating | 150615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–17 | 14–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 6–8 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–18 | 11–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 6–7 TB in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.