New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting3-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching3.2 IP, 9 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mountcastle hit sacrifice fly to center, Kjerstad scored.15–3
- 9Wells homered to left center (386 feet).15–2
- 8Reyes singled to right, Cabrera scored, Grisham to third.14–2
- 7Henderson homered to right (397 feet).13–2
- 7Volpe safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Henderson, Goldschmidt scored, Peraza safe at second, Bellinger safe at third.13–1
- 6Carlson grounded out to third, Rivera scored, Mateo to third.12–1
- 5Bellinger doubled to right, Judge scored and Rice scored, Goldschmidt to third.12–0
- 5Goldschmidt singled to left, Cabrera scored, Rice to second, Judge to third.10–0
- 4Peraza singled to center, Goldschmidt scored and Rice scored, Bellinger to second.9–0
- 4Goldschmidt singled to center, Judge scored, Rice to second.7–0
- 2Rice homered to right (389 feet).6–0
- 1Volpe doubled to left, Peraza scored.5–0
- 1Bellinger homered to right (403 feet).4–0
- 1Rice homered to right (378 feet).3–0
- 1Judge homered to right (364 feet).2–0
- 1Grisham homered to right (412 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML NYY -175 / BAL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 56.3%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -156
- BAL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.2 – 4.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −10 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +44 Elo | NYY 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.019th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 7th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 6–623rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301540 | Elo rating | 150316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–14 | 12–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–11 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 14–15 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 11–16 BAL in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 27.