Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting2-4
- Michael WachaPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Ryan O'HearnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rivera singled to right, Mountcastle scored, Carlson to second, Laureano to third.0–3
- 7O'Hearn homered to center (391 feet), Rutschman scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML KC +120 / BAL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 51.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -130
- KC +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.5 – 5.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −6 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +8 Elo | BAL 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.019th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.628th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.628th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 16th of 306–10 | Road vs home | 7–722nd of 30 |
| 11th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 16th of 301503 | Elo rating | 150117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–17 | 12–18 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 12–20 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 7–10 BAL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.