Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Abreu homered to right (420 feet).5–4
- 8Larnach singled to right, Bader scored.5–3
- 8Bader doubled to center, Correa scored.4–3
- 7Jeffers singled to left, Bader scored and Vázquez scored.3–3
- 3González hit sacrifice fly to center, Bregman scored.1–3
- 2Narváez singled to left, Abreu scored and González scored.1–2
- 1Buxton homered to left center (367 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 62%
- ML MIN +155 / BOS -185
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -166
- MIN +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.7 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +18 | MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +53 Elo | BOS 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 61.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 27th of 305–14 | Road vs home | 9–719th of 30 |
| 26th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 147930th of 30 |
| 21st of 301491 | Elo rating | 150117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–16 | 18–17 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–8 | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–22 | 17–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 7–8 BOS in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.