Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Hunter DobbinsPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Devers singled to center, Duran scored.4–3
- 7Duran tripled to right, Wong scored.4–2
- 6Larnach singled to left, Bader scored, Vázquez to second.4–1
- 6Clemens homered to right (398 feet), France scored.3–1
- 4France grounded out to second, Correa scored, Lee to third.1–1
- 3Devers singled to center, Duran scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML MIN -105 / BOS -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.7 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | 0 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Hunter Dobbins: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +23 Elo | BOS 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.17th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.610th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 28th of 304–14 | Road vs home | 9–618th of 30 |
| 26th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 147930th of 30 |
| 21st of 301489 | Elo rating | 150217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–16 | 18–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–8 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–21 | 17–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–8 BOS in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.