Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting3-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Massey homered to right center (404 feet), Biggio scored.11–6
- 8Mountcastle singled to right, O'Hearn scored.9–6
- 8Witt Jr. doubled to center, Isbel scored, Witt Jr. to third.9–5
- 8Maile homered to left center (419 feet).8–5
- 7Pasquantino homered to right center (380 feet).7–5
- 7Witt Jr. homered to left center (407 feet).6–5
- 6Garcia homered to left center (419 feet).5–5
- 5O'Hearn homered to left center (394 feet).4–5
- 5Mullins homered to right center (395 feet).4–4
- 5India homered to left center (393 feet).4–3
- 4Holliday homered to right (422 feet).3–3
- 4Waters singled to center, Perez scored and Renfroe scored.3–2
- 3Rutschman doubled to left, Henderson scored.1–2
- 2Holliday homered to right (374 feet).1–1
- 2Garcia homered to left center (395 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML KC +115 / BAL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 48.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -124
- KC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.5 – 5.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −21 | KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 1.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +9 Elo | KC 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 3.820th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.627th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 17th of 307–11 | Road vs home | 8–821st of 30 |
| 11th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15049th of 30 |
| 15th of 301504 | Elo rating | 150018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–18 | 13–19 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 12–22 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 8–11 BAL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.