Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-3
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Henderson tripled to right, Rutschman scored.4–1
- 7Ward grounded out to shortstop, Moncada scored.3–1
- 2Rivera singled to left, O'Neill scored, Holliday to second.3–0
- 2Holliday singled to center, O'Hearn scored, O'Neill to third.2–0
- 1Henderson homered to right center (400 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML BAL -135 / LAA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 58.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -124
- LAA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.0 – 4.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | −1 | BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 1.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +60 Elo | BAL 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.823rd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 5.426th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.9 | Margin | −1.727th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 27th of 305–14 | Road vs home | 8–820th of 30 |
| 7th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 21st of 301491 | Elo rating | 143528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–23 | 13–23 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 8–11 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders | 18–18 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 9–4 LAA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.