Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting3-4
- Kyle HendricksPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Greene grounded out to first, Ibáñez scored, Torres to third.2–5
- 8Torkelson homered to left (401 feet).1–5
- 6Paris singled to left, d'Arnaud scored and Rengifo scored.0–5
- 6Rengifo singled to center, Schanuel scored and Soler scored, d'Arnaud to third.0–3
- 2Paris safe at first on fielding error by right fielder Carpenter, d'Arnaud scored, Paris safe at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 64%
- ML DET -200 / LAA +165
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- DET: Elo 60.1%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -177
- LAA +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.9 – 3.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −7 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +71 Elo | DET 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.625th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 5.427th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −1.829th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 12th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 5–625th of 30 |
| 6th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149322nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301532 | Elo rating | 143328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–12 | 10–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 0–10 |
| Favorite | 11–5 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 9–12 |
| Overs–unders | 17–16 | 17–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 8–7 LAA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 15.