Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Casey MizePitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Torkelson homered to right center (386 feet), Ibáñez scored.10–4
- 9Ibáñez singled to right, Keith scored.8–4
- 8Dingler homered to left center (409 feet), Ibáñez scored and McKinstry scored.7–4
- 8McKinstry singled to center, Greene scored, McKinstry to second, Ibáñez to third.4–4
- 8Ibáñez singled to center, Keith scored, Greene to second, Ibáñez to second, Greene safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Adell.3–4
- 4Newman singled to center, Adell scored, Newman thrown out at second, Paris to third.2–4
- 3Soler homered to left (413 feet), Neto scored.2–3
- 3Torres homered to left center (416 feet).2–1
- 3Báez homered to left center (410 feet).1–1
- 2O'Hoppe homered to center (408 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML DET -150 / LAA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- DET: Elo 61.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -135
- LAA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.6 – 3.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −8 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +82 Elo | DET 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.724th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.427th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 14th of 306–9 | Road vs home | 5–421st of 30 |
| 4th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 149123rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301528 | Elo rating | 143828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–12 | 10–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 9–5 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders | 15–16 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–7 LAA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 13.