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Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast

FinalFanDuel SN DET, Space City Home Network, Space City Home (Alt.), MLB.TV

Away

Tigers

18-11

5–8

at

Home

Astros

15-13

DET 47%HOU 53%

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Daikin Park · FanDuel SN DET, Space City Home Network, Space City Home (Alt.), MLB.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.

HOU75%50%75%DETStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Tigers
  • Riley GreeneBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
  • Jack FlahertyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Astros
  • Jose AltuveBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Ronel BlancoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Greene homered to left (358 feet), Torres scored.5–8
  • 7Alvarez singled to right, Peña scored.3–8
  • 7Altuve grounded out to second, Dubón scored, Peña to third.3–7
  • 7Dubón singled to center, Diaz scored and Smith scored.3–6
  • 6Altuve homered to left center (396 feet), Peña scored.3–4
  • 4Walker homered to left center (399 feet), Paredes scored.3–2
  • 4Greene homered to left center (363 feet).3–0
  • 3Carpenter homered to left center (383 feet), Sweeney scored.2–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Astros 53%

Toss-upHit
DET 47%HOU 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
HOU 53%
ML DET +105 / HOU -125
Pre-line forecast
HOU 50%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
HOU 54%
Ratings vs. market
+0.7 pts
HOU: Elo 54.0%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
HOU -114
DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DET 3.6 – 3.9 HOU
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDETHOUWhy
Team rating15291526Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−120DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsHOU +28 EloHOU 54.0%
Market-implied ratingsDET 50.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastHOU 50.1%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastHOU 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros compared, with each team's league rank
DETStatHOU
11th of 304.6Runs scored3.724th of 30
3rd of 303.1Runs allowed3.34th of 30
2nd of 30+1.5Margin+0.413th of 30
1st of 308–2Last 106–46th of 30
12th of 305–7Road vs home9–617th of 30
7th of 301509Opponent Elo150313th of 30
6th of 301529Elo rating15269th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

TigersAstros
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDETHOU
Run line18–1014–13
Last 107–36–4
Favorite9–59–9
Underdog9–55–4
Overs–unders12–169–18
Overs–unders, last 103–72–8

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DET 7–7 HOU in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.