Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Javier BaezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jackson JobePitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- AJ BlubaughPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Caratini homered to left (350 feet).7–4
- 5Altuve doubled to left, Peña scored and Meyers scored.7–3
- 3Báez homered to left (350 feet), Carpenter scored, Greene scored and Keith scored.7–1
- 3McKinstry hit sacrifice fly to center, Nido scored.3–1
- 2Keith homered to right (406 feet), Greene scored.2–1
- 1Peña homered to left center (373 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML DET +100 / HOU -120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 51.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −7 | DET: Jackson Jobe: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · HOU: AJ Blubaugh (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +11 Elo | HOU 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.921st of 30 |
| 4th of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 3.33rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.611th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 17th of 305–9 | Road vs home | 11–613th of 30 |
| 6th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 9th of 301525 | Elo rating | 15307th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–12 | 16–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–5 | 11–9 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–16 | 11–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 7–9 HOU in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.
- Apr 29DET 4 @ HOU 6Picked HOU 51%Hit
- Apr 28DET 5 @ HOU 8Picked HOU 53%Hit
- Oct 2DET 5 @ HOU 2PlayoffsPicked HOU 62%Miss
- Oct 1DET 3 @ HOU 1PlayoffsPicked HOU 57%Miss
- Jun 16DET 1 @ HOU 4Picked HOU 60%Hit
- Jun 15DET 13 @ HOU 5Picked HOU 52%Miss
- Jun 14DET 0 @ HOU 4Picked HOU 52%Hit
- May 12HOU 9 @ DET 3Picked DET 52%Miss