Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rivas reached on infield single to second, Arozarena scored and Raleigh scored, Garver to second.3–9
- 7Raleigh singled to left, Rodríguez scored.3–7
- 7Rodríguez doubled to center, Crawford scored.3–6
- 7Crawford singled to left, Rivas scored and S. Taylor scored.3–5
- 4Neto grounded into fielder's choice to second, Campero scored, Newman out at second.3–3
- 3Arozarena struck out swinging, Raleigh scored on throwing error by catcher O'Hoppe.2–3
- 3Soler homered to left (349 feet).2–2
- 2Rivas singled to left, Garver scored, Solano to second.1–2
- 2Arozarena homered to left (400 feet).1–1
- 1O'Hoppe singled to right, Schanuel scored, Trout to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML LAA +120 / SEA -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 60.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -130
- LAA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.0 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −18 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +76 Elo | SEA 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.610th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 16th of 307–12 | Road vs home | 11–613th of 30 |
| 24th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149322nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301440 | Elo rating | 152511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–18 | 16–13 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 9–9 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–14 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 13–14 SEA in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 27.