Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting2-3, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Soler doubled to left, Schanuel scored.3–5
- 8Schanuel doubled to left, Neto scored.2–5
- 7Polanco homered to center (423 feet), Rodríguez scored.1–5
- 7O'Hoppe homered to center (395 feet).1–3
- 2Polanco homered to right center (395 feet), Mastrobuoni scored and Rivas scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 65%
- ML LAA +175 / SEA -210
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 65.3%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -186
- LAA +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.1 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +4 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +110 Elo | SEA 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 307–11 | Road vs home | 10–616th of 30 |
| 24th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 30 |
| 28th of 301441 | Elo rating | 152412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–17 | 15–13 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 13–13 SEA in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 26.