Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Greene homered to center (409 feet), McKinstry scored and Torkelson scored.9–1
- 9Carpenter scored on Eder wild pitch, McKinstry to third on wild pitch by Eder.6–1
- 9Carpenter scored on Eder wild pitch, McKinstry to third on wild pitch by Eder.6–1
- 9Báez homered to left (391 feet), Jung scored.5–1
- 9Keith homered to left center (398 feet).3–1
- 9Greene homered to right (371 feet).2–1
- 7Sweeney homered to right (362 feet).1–1
- 1Neto homered to center (429 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 63%
- ML DET -190 / LAA +160
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- DET: Elo 62.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -170
- LAA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 3.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +6 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +86 Elo | DET 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.724th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −1.628th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 12th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 5–523rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149123rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301530 | Elo rating | 143628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–12 | 10–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 0–10 |
| Favorite | 10–5 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders | 16–16 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 7–7 LAA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 14.