Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Varsho homered to right (383 feet).8–5
- 7O'Hoppe hit sacrifice fly to center, Neto scored, Schanuel to third.7–5
- 6Barger grounded into fielder's choice to first, Santander out at home, Springer scored, Kirk safe at second on throwing error by catcher O'Hoppe.7–4
- 6Varsho hit sacrifice fly to center, Guerrero Jr. scored, Springer to second, Santander to third.6–4
- 6Santander singled to left, Bichette scored and Lukes scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.5–4
- 5Barger singled to right, Springer scored.3–4
- 3Kirk grounded out to shortstop, Springer scored, Varsho to third.2–4
- 3Varsho doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored, Springer to third.1–4
- 2Neto scored on error, Ward safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Bichette, Schanuel to second.0–4
- 2Adell homered to left (402 feet).0–3
- 1Ward homered to left (389 feet), Schanuel scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML TOR -135 / LAA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- LAA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +23 Elo | TOR 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.724th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.426th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −1.727th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 24th of 305–12 | Road vs home | 8–720th of 30 |
| 7th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301480 | Elo rating | 143728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–16 | 13–22 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders | 16–20 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 11–4 LAA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.