Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Adell homered to center (418 feet).3–8
- 8Moncada homered to right (407 feet), Ward scored and O'Hoppe scored.3–7
- 8O'Hoppe singled to left, Schanuel scored, Ward to second.3–4
- 8Schanuel hit sacrifice bunt, Neto scored on fielding error by third baseman Clement, Schanuel to second.3–3
- 8Santander homered to right (377 feet).3–2
- 1Ward homered to center (419 feet), Neto scored.2–2
- 1Springer homered to left center (426 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML TOR -115 / LAA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | +3 | TOR: Jose Urena: team allows 1.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +7 Elo | TOR 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.524th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.527th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −1.929th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305–10 | Road vs home | 6–725th of 30 |
| 5th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301484 | Elo rating | 143328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–14 | 11–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 9–7 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 10–13 |
| Overs–unders | 14–20 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 11–2 LAA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.