Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Angels- Yoan MoncadaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soler doubled to left, Paris scored, Schanuel scored and Neto scored.4–5
- 7Paris homered to center (410 feet).4–2
- 7Bichette singled to left, Giménez scored and Straw scored, Clase to second.4–1
- 7Straw singled to center, Clement scored, Giménez to second.2–1
- 6Moncada homered to right (386 feet).1–1
- 6Santander singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML TOR -120 / LAA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 55.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- LAA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −13 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +38 Elo | TOR 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.724th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.427th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −1.727th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305–11 | Road vs home | 7–721st of 30 |
| 5th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301481 | Elo rating | 143628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–15 | 12–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–7 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 10–13 |
| Overs–unders | 15–20 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 11–3 LAA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.