Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ramon LaureanoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bader homered to left (408 feet), Keirsey Jr. scored.2–5
- 5Kjerstad singled to right, Laureano scored.2–3
- 3Buxton homered to left (386 feet), Castro scored and Clemens scored.1–3
- 3Laureano homered to center (425 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 57%
- ML BAL +120 / MIN -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -130
- BAL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.0 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | +7 | BAL: Charlie Morton: team allows 1.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +49 Elo | MIN 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.921st of 30 |
| 28th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 25th of 305–12 | Road vs home | 10–613th of 30 |
| 9th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149125th of 30 |
| 21st of 301495 | Elo rating | 149520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–21 | 20–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 11–8 |
| Underdog | 8–9 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 18–16 | 14–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 10–3 MIN in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.