Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Emmanuel RiveraBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8France singled to right, Lee scored.2–5
- 8Lee doubled to center, Buxton scored and Bader scored.2–4
- 6Larnach homered to right (393 feet).2–2
- 3Mountcastle hit sacrifice fly to center, Holliday scored.2–1
- 2Rivera doubled to left, Laureano scored, Mayo to third.1–1
- 1France singled to right, Buxton scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 59%
- ML BAL +135 / MIN -160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.7%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -145
- BAL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +7 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +25 Elo | MIN 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.020th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.66th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 26th of 305–13 | Road vs home | 11–611th of 30 |
| 9th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149125th of 30 |
| 21st of 301493 | Elo rating | 149719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–22 | 21–16 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 12–8 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 18–17 | 14–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 10–4 MIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.