Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ramon LaureanoBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Laureano homered to right center (382 feet).2–5
- 6Mountcastle doubled to left, Henderson scored.1–5
- 5Rengifo grounded out to pitcher, Moncada scored, O'Hoppe to second, Ward to third.0–5
- 4Lugo tripled to center, Paris scored.0–4
- 4Adell homered to center (435 feet).0–3
- 1Ward hit sacrifice fly to center, Schanuel scored.0–2
- 1Moncada singled to right, Neto scored, Schanuel to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML BAL -145 / LAA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -130
- LAA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.5 – 5.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −25 | −15 | BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 1.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +31 Elo | BAL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.725th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 5.426th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −1.727th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 26th of 306–14 | Road vs home | 8–923rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149619th of 30 |
| 21st of 301493 | Elo rating | 143328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–23 | 13–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 8–11 | 11–15 |
| Overs–unders | 18–19 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 10–4 LAA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.