Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Christian VazquezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Larnach scored on Akin wild pitch.6–3
- 9Larnach scored on Akin wild pitch.6–3
- 9Larnach doubled to right, Buxton scored on error, Larnach safe at third on fielding error by right fielder O'Neill.5–3
- 4Vázquez homered to left center (406 feet), Correa scored and Castro scored.4–3
- 4Lee homered to center (401 feet).1–3
- 3Henderson homered to right (405 feet), Mountcastle scored.0–3
- 3Mountcastle doubled to left, Urías scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML MIN +100 / BAL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 50.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 4.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +1 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL 0 Elo | BAL 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.427th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.728th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 26th of 306–14 | Road vs home | 8–922nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 17th of 301502 | Elo rating | 149222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–17 | 15–24 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–9 | 7–13 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders | 15–26 | 19–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–10 BAL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.