San Francisco Giants at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting2-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Keirsey Jr. singled to left, Lee scored, Castro to third.6–7
- 10Jeffers grounded out to third, France scored, Lee to second.6–6
- 10Villar grounded out to third, Lee scored, Ramos to second.6–5
- 8Ramos singled to center, Adames scored, Chapman to third.5–5
- 6Bader grounded into fielder's choice to third, Castro scored, Bride out at second, Lewis to third.4–5
- 6Lewis singled to center, Lee scored, Castro to second, Jeffers to third.4–4
- 5Buxton hit sacrifice fly to left, Clemens scored.4–3
- 5Lee hit sacrifice fly to right, Yastrzemski scored.4–2
- 4Lee homered to right center (390 feet), Larnach scored.3–2
- 4Ramos homered to right center (407 feet), Chapman scored.3–0
- 1Ramos hit sacrifice fly to right, Yastrzemski scored, Lee to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 58%
- ML SF +130 / MIN -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 52.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -140
- SF +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.9 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +7 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +14 Elo | MIN 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.920th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.55th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–11 | Road vs home | 14–68th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149324th of 30 |
| 13th of 301516 | Elo rating | 150118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–20 | 24–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 9–13 | 14–8 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–17 | 14–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 4–4 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.