San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Luis MatosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Suzuki singled to left, Lopez scored and Swanson scored, Tucker to second.2–9
- 6Happ hit sacrifice fly to left, Hoerner scored.2–7
- 6Lopez walked, Crow-Armstrong scored, Swanson to second, Hoerner to third.2–6
- 6Kelly homered to left (388 feet).2–5
- 4Swanson singled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored and Hoerner scored.2–4
- 4Matos homered to left center (380 feet), Chapman scored.2–2
- 3Happ homered to right center (383 feet), Swanson scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 61%
- ML SF +145 / CHC -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.4%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -156
- SF +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.3 – 4.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +1 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +38 Elo | CHC 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.91st of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.82nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 5th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 9–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15241st of 30 |
| 13th of 301516 | Elo rating | 15405th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–17 | 18–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 11–9 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 21–14 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 5–8 CHC in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.