Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Kyle TuckerBatting2-3
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Caleb DurbinBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Durbin doubled to center, Cameron scored and Hoskins scored.0–4
- 6Cameron singled to center, Yelich scored, Hoskins to third.0–2
- 6Chourio scored on Merryweather wild pitch, Yelich to second on wild pitch by Merryweather.0–1
- 6Chourio scored on Merryweather wild pitch, Yelich to second on wild pitch by Merryweather.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 50%
- ML CHC -110 / MIL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 48.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -100
- CHC -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.8 – 3.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +7 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +10 Elo | CHC 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.1 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 1st of 3012–6 | Road vs home | 9–615th of 30 |
| 1st of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 149422nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301542 | Elo rating | 152112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–16 | 17–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–9 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 22–12 | 15–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 13–15 MIL in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 28.