Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Tucker homered to right (372 feet).6–2
- 4Hoskins homered to left center (393 feet).5–2
- 4Swanson homered to left center (391 feet).5–1
- 4Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (398 feet), Kelly scored and Hoerner scored.4–1
- 3Turang singled to right, Chourio scored.1–1
- 1Turner singled to center, Happ scored, Kelly to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML CHC -115 / MIL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 47.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +11 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +15 Elo | MIL 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.1 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 1st of 3011–6 | Road vs home | 9–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 149223rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301540 | Elo rating | 152312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–16 | 17–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–9 | 10–8 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 22–11 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 12–15 MIL in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 27.