Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting1-3
- Chad PatrickPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Robert Jr. doubled to center, Benintendi scored, Taylor scored and Meidroth scored.0–8
- 7Benintendi walked, Sosa scored, Meidroth to second, Taylor to third.0–5
- 6Vargas homered to left (367 feet), Quero scored and Vaughn scored.0–4
- 1Robert Jr. singled to left, Meidroth scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 60%
- ML MIL -165 / CHW +140
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 67.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -149
- CHW +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.7 – 3.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1402 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −5 | MIL: Chad Patrick: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +123 Elo | MIL 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.427th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.124th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 16th of 307–11 | Road vs home | 4–1029th of 30 |
| 21st of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 148925th of 30 |
| 6th of 301531 | Elo rating | 140230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–14 | 16–14 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–7 | — |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders | 14–17 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 8–0 CHW in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 8.