Chicago White Sox at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Michael A. TaylorBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching7.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Luis UriasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kurtz singled to left, Andujar scored.10–3
- 7Urías homered to left (369 feet).10–2
- 7Dalbec reached on infield single to pitcher, Vaughn scored, Taylor to third.10–1
- 7Taylor doubled to left, Robert Jr. scored and Quero scored, Vaughn to third.9–1
- 6Amaya hit sacrifice fly to center, Taylor scored.7–1
- 4Andujar grounded out to second, Rooker scored.6–1
- 2Vaughn hit sacrifice fly to right, Robert Jr. scored.6–0
- 2Quero singled to right, Vargas scored, Robert Jr. to third.5–0
- 1Baldwin doubled to right, Taylor scored.4–0
- 1Taylor doubled to center, Sosa scored.3–0
- 1Sosa doubled to right, Quero scored, Sosa to third.2–0
- 1Robert Jr. homered to left (352 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 67%
- ML CHW +195 / ATH -235
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- ATH: Elo 61.1%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- ATH -207
- CHW +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.0 – 5.5 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1402 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +3 | CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +78 Elo | ATH 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 69.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 68.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 29th of 302–12 | Road vs home | 5–828th of 30 |
| 28th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 149422nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301402 | Elo rating | 146027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–12 | 15–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 12–14 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–11 ATH in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.
