Chicago White Sox at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Brooks BaldwinBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baldwin homered to right (381 feet), Sosa scored.5–6
- 8Kurtz hit sacrifice fly to left, Bleday scored.3–6
- 7Soderstrom singled to center, Rooker scored.3–5
- 7Rooker doubled to left, Schuemann scored.3–4
- 6Wilson singled to center, Soderstrom scored on error and Bleday scored on fielding error by center fielder Robert Jr., Wilson to second.3–3
- 6Thaiss doubled to shortstop, Maton scored.3–1
- 6Maton doubled to right, Robert Jr. scored.2–1
- 5Wilson homered to left (376 feet).1–1
- 5Vargas singled to right, Thaiss scored, Sosa to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 68%
- ML CHW +200 / ATH -240
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- ATH: Elo 59.5%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- ATH -212
- CHW +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.9 – 5.6 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1402 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −11 | CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +67 Elo | ATH 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 63.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–11 | Road vs home | 4–828th of 30 |
| 26th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 30th of 301402 | Elo rating | 145927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–12 | 15–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 11–14 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–10 ATH in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.
