Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Isaac CollinsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryse WilsonPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Collins grounded out to second, Durbin scored, Chourio to second, Turang to third.7–2
- 8Chourio reached on infield single to third, Frelick scored, Turang to second, Durbin to third.6–2
- 6Durbin singled to left, Contreras scored and Hoskins scored, Frelick to second.5–2
- 6Frelick hit by pitch, Collins scored, Hoskins to second, Contreras to third.3–2
- 6Contreras singled to right, Ortiz scored, Collins to third.2–2
- 1Robert Jr. homered to center (415 feet).1–2
- 1Benintendi homered to right (366 feet).1–1
- 1Collins homered to left (372 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 69%
- ML MIL -255 / CHW +210
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 66.1%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -223
- CHW +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.6 – 2.9 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −4 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Bryse Wilson: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +116 Elo | MIL 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 65.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.426th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.922nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 21st of 305–11 | Road vs home | 4–829th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 148727th of 30 |
| 6th of 301529 | Elo rating | 140530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–14 | 16–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | — |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 16–12 |
| Overs–unders | 12–17 | 13–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–0 CHW in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.