Chicago White Sox at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Joshua PalaciosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Luis UriasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 10Urías homered to left center (398 feet), Wilson scored.2–3
- 10Robert Jr. singled to right, Amaya scored.2–1
- 1Rooker doubled to left, Butler scored.1–1
- 1Palacios homered to left (400 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 63%
- ML CHW +160 / ATH -190
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- ATH: Elo 61.4%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- ATH -170
- CHW +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.2 – 5.3 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1406 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +6 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATH: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +81 Elo | ATH 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 64.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–12 | Road vs home | 5–928th of 30 |
| 27th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 149124th of 30 |
| 30th of 301406 | Elo rating | 145627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–12 | 15–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 7–11 ATH in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.
