Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vargas singled to left, Benintendi scored.6–4
- 8Durbin hit sacrifice fly to right, Bauers scored.6–3
- 8Bauers doubled to right, Contreras scored and Frelick scored, Hoskins to third.5–3
- 5Vaughn singled to right, Robert Jr. scored, Benintendi thrown out at third.3–3
- 4Capra hit sacrifice fly to center, Ortiz scored.3–2
- 2Palacios hit by pitch, Thaiss scored, Baldwin to second, Sosa to third.2–2
- 2Sosa singled to center, Vargas scored, Thaiss to third.2–1
- 1Contreras scored on error, Hoskins safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Workman.2–0
- 1Contreras singled to right, Collins scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 59%
- ML MIL -160 / CHW +135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 63.0%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -145
- CHW +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.2 – 3.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1403 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +12 | MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +93 Elo | MIL 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.328th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.022nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 17th of 306–11 | Road vs home | 4–929th of 30 |
| 21st of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 148728th of 30 |
| 6th of 301530 | Elo rating | 140330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–14 | 16–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–7 | — |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders | 13–17 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–0 CHW in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.