Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting1-2
- Quinn PriesterPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Crow-Armstrong homered to right (399 feet).10–0
- 2Crow-Armstrong homered to center (418 feet).9–0
- 2Busch homered to left center (392 feet), Tucker scored, Suzuki scored and Kelly scored.8–0
- 2Suzuki reached on infield single to second, Lopez scored, Tucker to second, Happ to third.4–0
- 2Tucker singled to right, Swanson scored, Happ to second, Lopez to third.3–0
- 1Hoerner singled to right, Tucker scored, Busch to second.2–0
- 1Kelly singled to right, Happ scored, Tucker to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 54%
- ML CHC -135 / MIL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 48.7%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -118
- MIL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.4 – 4.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −9 | CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIL: Tyler Alexander: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +9 Elo | MIL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.0 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3010–6 | Road vs home | 9–46th of 30 |
| 1st of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 149122nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301536 | Elo rating | 15279th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–16 | 17–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 10–8 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 21–11 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 11–15 MIL in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 26.