Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- German MarquezPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Goodman grounded out to second, McMahon scored.3–9
- 8McMahon tripled to center, Beck scored.2–9
- 7Wade Jr. singled to right, Chapman scored, Flores to third.1–9
- 7Flores singled to left, Lee scored and Yastrzemski scored, Chapman to second.1–8
- 7Lee hit by pitch, Bailey scored, Yastrzemski to second, Koss to third.1–6
- 5Adames doubled to center, Yastrzemski scored.1–5
- 5Yastrzemski singled to center, Matos scored and Bailey scored, Yastrzemski to second.1–4
- 5Stallings singled to left, Moniak scored.1–2
- 3Adames homered to left center (398 feet).0–2
- 1Adames homered to left center (392 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- SF 77%
- ML COL +315 / SF -400
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- SF: Elo 68.8%, market 76.9%
- Fair odds
- SF -332
- COL +332 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.4 – 5.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +8 | COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +138 Elo | SF 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 72.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 71.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 76.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.5 | Margin | +0.99th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–16 | Road vs home | 11–55th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 30 |
| 29th of 301411 | Elo rating | 151413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–20 | 17–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 8–12 |
| Underdog | 11–17 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–22 | 20–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 8–21 SF in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 29.